The correlation between economic growth and stock market returns is a environment stock price increases should exactly match real GDP. et al.1 compared long-term real equity market returns and real GDP growth rates. The Indian economy has grown at a remarkably constant nominal The spurious nature of the relationship between GDP growth rates and. Real GDP for a given year, in relation to a "base" year, is computed by multiplying the nominal GDP for a given year by the ratio of the GDP price deflator in the.
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This is one of the lowest among developing economies. External debt in December was This is the lowest in the last thirty years and it is stimulating consumption and investment. A new spirit of economic freedom is now stirring in the country, bringing sweeping changes in its wake. A series of ambitious economic reforms aimed at deregulating the country and stimulating foreign investment has moved India firmly into the front ranks of the rapidly growing Asia Pacific region and unleashed the latent strengths of a complex and rapidly changing nation.
India's process of economic reform is firmly rooted in a political consensus that spans her diverse political parties. India's democracy is a known and stable factor, which has taken deep roots over nearly half a century. Importantly, India has no fundamental conflict between its political and economic systems.
Its political institutions have fostered an open society with strong collective and individual rights and an environment supportive of free economic enterprise. India's time tested institutions offer foreign investors a transparent environment that guarantees the security of their long term investments. These include a free and vibrant press, a judiciary which can and does overrule the government, a sophisticated legal and accounting system and a user friendly intellectual infrastructure.
India's dynamic and highly competitive private sector has long been the backbone of its economic activity. Today, India is one of the most exciting emerging markets in the world. Skilled managerial and technical manpower that match the best available in the world and a middle class whose size exceeds the population of the USA or the European Union, provide India with a distinct cutting edge in global competition.
A most widely used measure of economic output is the Gross Domestic Product. Gross Domestic Product GDPa calculation method in national accounting is defined as the total value of final goods and services produced within a country's borders in a year, regardless of ownership. GDP measures only final goods and services, that is those goods and services that are consumed by their final user, and not used as an input into other goods.
Measuring intermediate goods and services would lead to double counting of economic activity within a country. This distinction also removes transfers between individuals and companies from GDP.
There are three approaches to calculating GDP with al rendering same results. Calculates the final spending on goods and services. Calculates the market value of goods and service produced.
Sums the income received by all products in the country. Expenditure Approach to determine GDP: It is unaffected by the estimated value of imported goods. If the price deflator is not known, an implicit price deflator can be calculated by dividing the nominal GDP by the real GDP: GDP usually is reported each quarter on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis.
Is there a Correlation between GDP Growth and Stock Market Returns?
Note that growth in GDP does not result in increased purchasing power if the growth is due to inflation or population increase. For purchasing power, it is the real, per capita GDP that is important.
While investment is an important factor in a nation's GDP growth, even more important is greater respect for laws and contracts. Gross National Product GNP measures the output of a nation's factors of production, regardless of whether the factors are located within the country's borders.
For example, the output of workers located in another country would be included in the workers' home country GNP but not its GDP.
The Gross National Product can be either larger or smaller than the country's GDP depending on the number of its citizens working outside its borders and the number of other country's citizens working within its borders. Nominal GDP is simply the sum of the quantities of final goods produced times their current price.
Economists use nominal for variables expressed in units of the currency of the relevant country. Nominal GDP increases over time for two reasons. The first is that the production of most goods increases over time. The second is that the price of most goods increases over time. In order to measure production and its change over time, the effect of increasing prices Vol.
Hence, focus is on real GDP rather than nominal. Carstrom expressed that stock prices and future RGDP growth are related. He gave two prominent explanations for this; the first explanation was that changes in information about the future course of RGDP cause prices to change in the stock market today.
When it costs more for firms to borrow money, they borrow and invest less, RGDP growth slows. Changes in information about the future course of RGDP may cause prices to change in the stock market. This explanation suggests that while stock prices are used to predict future economic activity, the actual causality is from future GDP growth in current stock prices. Thus goods and services commands a higher price than actual as more people are willing to pay a higher value to buy the same goods.
In this inflationary situation, there is no real growth in the output of the economy per se. For a brief moment let us suspend belief and imagine that all the money in the Vol. And all the goods produced in the country are just five apples.
Naturally, each apple will fetch Rs Next year, the money doubles to Rs but the total goods produced are again five apples. Each apple will now fetch Rs That is what inflation is all about — too much money chasing too few goods. Inflation is a hydra-headed monster, which has a desirable as well as an undesirable effect.
The desirable part is that when prices are high, businessmen get more value for their goods, which entices them to produce more. The undesirable part is that when prices shoot up, people are forced to restrict their purchases, which can lead to recession. Rising oil prices have been one of the main causes of inflation though that is not all. A weak monsoon till recently brought about a shortage in food items and some commodities.
There had also been a surge in foreign exchange inflows and to keep the price of the rupee stable, the RBI has been purchasing dollars — and that means pumping in rupees into the system. To suck out the excess rupees from the system, the RBI follows a policy of sterile intervention — which translates into the RBI issuing government securities.
There is a limit to the quantum of government securities the RBI can issue and its stock of securities at the moment is insignificant. The RBI can tighten the monetary policy by raising interest rates, however, higher interest rates will hit the balance sheet of banks that have large interest rate exposures. Moreover, the RBI is also the banker to the government by virtue of which, it tends to keep the interest rate low so that the government's interest cost remains in control.
Inflation is caused by a combination of four factors. According to him, inflation causes serious discomfort for consumers, investors, producers and the government.